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(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability

D’Agostino, Antonello; Giannone, Domenico; Surico, Paolo - 2006

This paper documents a new stylized fact of the greater macroeconomic stability of the U.S. economy over the last two decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604651

ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Cheng - 2023

We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348182

(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

D'Agostino, Antonello - 2006

This paper documents a new stylized fact of the greater macroeconomic stability of the U.S. economy over the last two decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780502

A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth

Grover, Sean - 2017

Analyzing the performance of the economy in real time is a challenge for those who must forecast macroeconomic variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information contained in economic announcements. In this article, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012967136

Does central bank transparency and communication affect financial and macroeconomic forecasts?

Lustenberger, Thomas; Rossi, Enzo - 2018

In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790688

Forecasting macroeconomic risks

Adams, Patrick A.; Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; … - 2020

We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012167481

Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?

Breuss, Fritz - 2016

DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187

Can alternative data improve the accuracy of dynamic factor model nowcasts? : evidence from the euro area

Cristea, Radu Gabriel - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013206467

Diminishing Dollar Hegemony : What Wars and Sanctions Failed to Accomplish, COVID-19 Has

Taskinsoy, John - 2020

East as a whole and a host of other countries in Europe. Coronavirus was the final blow to put the already fragile world … economy into state of coma. The world's nations would have been in a better state financially to fight coronavirus if the …, United States unlike any country can engage in more than one war simultaneously, but this time the unusual enemy coronavirus …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837594

Assessment of GDP Growth After the Corona Crisis Using the Results of Business And Consumer Surveys

Kitrar, Liudmila; Lipkind, Tamara - 2021

economic growth, primarily due to the coronavirus effect. According to the results, under all possible scenarios for the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239584

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