[...]This article describes a method by which we may moreaccurately predict regional economic activity. Specifically, wedevelop an index of leading economic indicators (LEI) forNew York State and for New Jersey over the 1972-99 period.We extend our earlier work (Orr, Rich, and Rosen 1999),...

[...]This paper presents theoretical and empirical analysis ofautomatic fiscal stabilizers. Using the modern theory of consumption behavior, we identify several channels throughwhich optimal reaction of household consumption plans toaggregate income shocks is tempered by these stabilizers....

Since the 1980s the debate about economic convergence hasdominated empirical work about the dynamics of growth. Economichistorians have been attracted, in particular, by stories of clubconvergence. However, the analytical foundations of most of the work inthis area have rested on linear, or more...

Economic convergence has emerged as one of the key debates in the theoretical andhistorical literature over the last decade. Galor identified three forms of long run percapita income convergence: absolute convergence, whereby convergence occursindependently of the initial conditions facing each...