We build a novel leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper is able to produce an ex-ante LI that is immune to "overlapping information drawbacks". In addition, the set of variables composing the LI...

We build a quasi real-time leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper gives rise to an ex-ante LI that is immune to "overlapping information drawbacks". In addition, the set of variables composing the LI...

We apply a relatively novel leading–lagging (LL) method to four leading and one lagging indexes for industrial production (IP) in Germany. We obtain three sets of results. First, we show that the sentiment-based ifo index performs best in predicting the general changes in IP (−0.596, range...

Using OECD composite leading indicators (CLI), we assess empirically whether the ability of the country- specific CLIs to predict economic activity has diminished in recent years, e.g. due to rapid advances in globalisation. Overall, we find evidence that the CLI encompasses useful information...

Following the discontinuation of the official statistics on industrial new orders by Eurostat in mid-2012, this paper introduces the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders, which aims to fill the new statistical gaps for euro area total new orders as well as for various breakdowns....

Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung der Gesamtwirtschaft ist im Januar 2019 auf 88,3% gesunken. Dies ergab eine Auswertung von ca. 7 000 Meldungen von Unternehmen im Rahmen der ifo Konjunkturumfragen. Nach dem konjunkturellen Boom kühlt sich die deutsche Wirtschaft ab und befindet sich am Beginn...

Das ifo Geschäftsklima, der wichtigste Indikator für die Konjunktur in Deutschland, ist als Mittelwert der beiden Komponenten "Geschäftslage" und "Geschäftserwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate" definiert. 1993 wurde vom ifo Institut der zyklische Zusammenhang zwischen den beiden...