Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 8,301
Cover Image
The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974-2017
Stuart, Rebecca - In: Swiss journal of economics and statistics 156 (2020) 1/2, pp. 1-17
This paper studies the predictive power for recessions of the slope of the Swiss term structure using monthly data for … 1974-2017. Dynamic probit models indicate that the term structure contains information useful for predicting recessions for … horizons up to 19 months. Whether the economy is currently in recession or not is also useful for forecasting recessions. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012257468
Cover Image
Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models
Camacho, Maximo; Martínez-Martín, Jaime - In: Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for … 47 (2014) 1, pp. 347-364
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010380607
Cover Image
Measuring financial stress in transition economies
Cevik, Emrah Ismail; Dibooglu, Sel; Kutan, Ali Mustafa - In: Journal of financial stability 9 (2013) 4, pp. 597-611
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010424078
Cover Image
Qualitative survey responses and production over the business cycle
Lindström, Tomas - 2000
An examination of Swedish manufacturing data on real output and qualitative business tendency survey (BTS) responses from 1968 through 1998 reveals that survey-based attitude data typically improve the fit of simple autoprojective models of manufacturing output growth. It also turns out that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584039
Cover Image
Metropolitan business cycle analysis for Lubbock
Fullerton, Thomas M.; Subia, Macie Z. - In: Journal of economics and political economy : JEPE 4 (2017) 1, pp. 33-52
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011644270
Cover Image
Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies
Cevik, Emrah I.; Dibooglu, Sel; Kenç, Turalay - In: Research in international business and finance 36 (2016), pp. 127-139
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011594287
Cover Image
In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany
Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2001
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400394
Cover Image
The global impact of the Great Depression
Albers, Thilo N. H.; Uebele, Martin - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010519830
Cover Image
Electricity use as an indicator of U.S. economic activity
Arora, Vipin; Lieskovsky, Jozef - 2016
We argue for the resurrection of an old idea: electricity use as an indicator of U.S. economic activity. Our analysis relies on associations - the 40-year correlation between growth rates in real GDP and electricity use can be as high as 89% - and intuition. Electricity use and economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011427940
Cover Image
The Swiss business cycle and the lead of small neighbor Liechtenstein
Brunhart, Andreas - 2015
This contribution investigates the business cycles of Switzerland compared to its five neighboring countries Germany, Austria, Italy, France and Liechtenstein. In contrast to the widespread notion of small countries "importing" the business cycle from bigger neighbors, it is shown that the real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011427978