In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses and forecastencompassing tests reveal that survey-based indicators...

In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...

The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of...

In der Konjunkturprognose des ifo Instituts spielt die Analyse und Vorhersage der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität nach Wirtschaftsbereichen eine wichtige Rolle. Grund hierfür ist die detaillierte Verfügbarkeit von Konjunkturindikatoren aus der ifo Konjunkturumfrage. Für Verwendungsaggregate wie...

Prognosen der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf regionaler Ebene sind bisher eher selten in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur und in der Praxis vorzufinden. Dies ist vor allem auf das Fehlen von Quartalsdaten und der nur wenigen potenziellen Indikatoren auf regionaler Ebene zurückzuführen. Der...

We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing tests reveal that survey-based indicators outperform...

Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...