This paper introduces a Divisia monetary aggregate for Germany and explores its information content for the Great Recession. Divisia money and the corresponding simple sum aggregate are highly correlated in normal times but begin to diverge before the crisis. Out of sample forecast analysis and...

This paper puts forward the concept and analytic expression of the environmental pressure index (EPI) for discovering and warning an economic crisis. Empirical researches show, EPI can effectively indicate that the economic crisis occurs or will occur. It is worth noting, EPI can also be applied...