As a result of the current global financial crisis, in 2009 the world economy is likely to experience the largest contraction since World War II and the unemployment rate to reach historical highs in many countries. The fact that the current global crisis is originated from the U.S. and followed...

Was the collapse of world trade between 1928 and 1937 caused by higher transport costs, increased protectionism or the collapse of the gold standard? Using recent advances in the estimation of gravity equations, I examine the partial and general equilibrium effects of bilateral distance,...

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural...

We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examine import trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis...

In light of the unprecedented mutation of the COVID-19 pandemic into a global economic recession, the WTO projects world trade volume to plummet by a staggering 13 percent to 32 percent in 2020. This translates to large-scale losses in global output and employment, especially in trade-oriented...

We document the outbreak of a trade war after the U.S. adopted the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930. U.S. trade partners initially protested the possible implementation of the sweeping tariff legislation, with many eventually choosing to retaliate by increasing their tariffs on imports from the...

Both the American left and right often use “national security” to justify sweeping proposals for new U.S. protectionism and industrial policy. “Free markets” and a lack of government support for the manufacturing sector are alleged to have crippled the U.S. defense industrial base’s...

This study investigates the impact of global crisis shocks on India's trade and industry. We use both panel data modeling and vector autoregression techniques to understand the dynamic effects of global crisis shocks on Indian industry and trade. The estimated results of panel data models show...

This study investigates the impact of global crisis shocks on India's trade and industry. The authors use panel data modeling and vector autoregression techniques to understand the dynamic effects of global crisis shocks on Indian industry and trade. Changes in trade composition are positively...

This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non-unitary expenditure elasticities of import demand implied by non-homothetic preferences in the previous year to be further combined with the current change in expenditure to...