We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both … ROC and inverted precision in PRC are analogous concepts, and their difference is determined by the interaction of sample … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …

A series of standard and penalized logistic regression models is used for modeling and forecasting Great Recession and … COVID-19 recession in the US. These two recessions are scrutinized by taking a close look at the movement of five chosen … predictors themselves and their regression coefficients along with predicted recession probabilities. The empirical analysis …

We propose a parsimonious semiparametric method for macroeconomic forecasting during episodes of sudden changes. Based … does particularly well during the Great Recession and for variables such as inflation, unemployment, and real personal …

This paper argues that the re-emergence of stagnation tendencies in modern capitalism can be related to … Eurozone and its main member countries, imposes an aggregation problem on the global economy and thus contributes to stagnation …

, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007). Our main result is that weak productivity growth cannot account for the experienced stagnation …. Rather, the stagnation is explained by factors that made labor and investment expensive. We show that an increase in labor …

of stagnation or low growth. Comparative case studies of the Great Depression, the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980 … prosperity for a long time? The main conclusion is that stagnation after big financial crises becomes likely when the balance … growth stimulus by the state. Some tentative conclusions for the subprime financial crisis and the Great Recession are drawn. …