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Banking crises and recessions : what can leading indicators tell us?

Corder, Matthew; Weale, Martin - 2011

is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional …It is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there … predict banking crises and recessions and if these variables can explain the previously observed interdependence. Inclusion of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009348639

Konjunktur deutlich abgekühlt : politische Risiken hoch

Döhrn, Roland; Holtemöller, Oliver; Kooths, Stefan; … - In: Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 99 (2019) 4, pp. 262-266

Die Konjunktur in Deutschland hat sich seit Mitte des Jahres 2018 merklich abgekühlt. Der langjährige Aufschwung ist …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997122

Filtering German Economic Conditions from a Large Dataset : The New DIW Economic Barometer

Viefers, Paul - 2014

This paper presents a revised version of the DIW Economic Barometer, the business cycle index of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). As in earlier versions, we put forward a factor model on a monthly frequency to filter the latent state of the aggregate economy. In the new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046441

Economic Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Aastveit, Knut Are - 2013

This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We consider several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction effects with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073109

Early Warning Indicators for the German Banking System : A Macroprudential Analysis

Jahn, Nadya - 2016

-blown banking system crises. In this paper we introduce a continuous and forward-looking stability indicator for the banking system …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988812

Vor der Talsohle

Sinn, Hans-Werner; Nierhaus, Wolfgang; Meister, Wolfgang - In: ifo Schnelldienst 54 (2001) 24, pp. 27-42

2002 vorgestellt. Die Konjunktur in Deutschland dürfte - nach schwacher Entwicklung im Winterhalbjahr - ab dem zweiten … Quartal 2002 allmählich wieder Fahrt aufnehmen, angeregt durch die wieder anziehende Konjunktur in den USA und den Umschwung …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691832

Konjunkturschlaglicht. Inflation: neues Basisjahr und Preisbremsen

Jannsen, Nils; Sonnenberg, Nils - In: Wirtschaftsdienst 103 (2023) 3, pp. 223-224

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014289986

Vor der Talsohle

Sinn, Hans-Werner; Nierhaus, Wolfgang; Meister, Wolfgang - In: Ifo Schnelldienst 54 (2001) 24, pp. 27-42

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005014023

Asian development outlook forecast accuracy 2007-2016

Ferrarini, Benno - 2019

This is done in relation to the benchmark of World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections by the International Monetary Fund. Amid much heterogeneity across countries and years, it has been found that ADO and WEO projections overlap quite closely. Both are inaccurate, especially during crisis years,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011955528

OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis : a post mortem

Pain, Nigel; Lewis, Christine; Dang, Thai Thanh; Jin, Yosuke - 2014

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419

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