Over the past few years, many large technology companies have started lending in the capital markets, i.e., “TechFin”. How should we modify our existing macro-finance theories to accommodate the rise of this new financial intermediary? This paper introduces both a banking sector and a...

Conviction narrative theory (CNT), a social psychological approach to the way economic agents take deisions under Knightian uncertainty, together with the new methodology of directed algorithmic text analysis (DATA), provide the opportunity for a theory of economic sentiment or animal sprits...

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s...

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

In the open economy control conditions, the government's main concern should be ensurance of macroeconomic stabilization. One of real tools for achieving this goal is monetary and budgetary levers' combination, in which strong fiscal stimuls should be merged with monetary policy, although...

Strategic interactions between policymakers arise whenever each policymaker has distinct objectives. Deviating from full cooperation can result in large welfare losses. To facilitate the study of strategic interactions, we develop a toolbox that characterizes the welfare-maximizing cooperative...

This paper provides new empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in developing economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify unanticipated changes in public investment, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output in the short and...

During last two quarters, active macroeconomic policies have been a significant component of the overall response of the U.S. government to the coronavirus pandemic. An analysis of current government policies addressing this short-term shock and the resulting economic impact would be helpful in...

This work nests the Agent-Based macroeconomic perspective into the earlier history of macroeconomics. We discuss how the discipline in the 70's took a perverse path relying on models grounded on fictitious rational representative agent in order to try to pathetically circumvent aggregation and...