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This paper first reviews a number of stylised facts concerning OECD country business cycles over the past four decades. In general, the amplitude of business cycles has fallen, driven mainly by declining fluctuations of domestic demand. As a result, international divergencies of cyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012445279
This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443536
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003597520
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003566118
The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the … characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary … well as gradual real income losses, the economic policy implication for Japan and Europe is the timely exit from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081055
The paper compares the boom-and-bust cycles in Japan and Europe with respect to the reasons for excessive booms, the … characteristics of the crises, and the (potential) effects of the crisis therapies. As in Japan the consequence of expansionary … well as gradual real income losses, the economic policy implication for Japan and Europe is the timely exit from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743745
Japan hat nicht nur 15 Jahre vor Europa einen Boom-und-Krisen-Zyklus durchschritten, sondern auch wichtige Erfahrungen … gemacht. Japan hat die Nullzinsgrenze bereits 1999 erreicht und eine Staatsverschuldung in Rekordhöhe angehäuft. Das Papier … vergleicht die Boom-und- Krisen-Zyklen in Japan und Europa hinsichtlich der Ursachen, des Krisenverlaufs, der Krisentherapien und …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009656349
This paper first reviews a number of stylised facts concerning OECD country business cycles over the past four decades. In general, the amplitude of business cycles has fallen, driven mainly by declining fluctuations of domestic demand. As a result, international divergencies of cyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011689904
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013468177
This paper investigates the effects of global economic uncertainty and trade policy-related uncertainty in the US in predicting the bond and equity flows to Turkey during the period from January 2008 to November 2019. We use the time-varying Granger-causality test to assess the ability of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012816653