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Is the Recovery Sustainable?
Papadimitriou, Dimitri B. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112650
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The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies
Mehl, Arnaud - 2006
-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604737
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Deficits, Debts and Growth : A Reprieve But Not a Pardon
Shaikh, Anwar M.; Papadimitriou, Dimitri B.; Dos … - 2004
The paper argues in favor of significant budget deficits based on the understanding that the expansion of the 1990s was fueled by a great build-up of debt, and that this would eventually give way to a severe recession unless offset by a strong fiscal stimulus. In 2001, with the total government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014073801
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Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries : An Assessment of Projection Performance
Mooney, Henry - 2017
This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012942354
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Prospects for the World Economy
Labini, Paolo Sylos - 2018
The analysis here is founded on certain analogies with the Great Depression of the Thirties and four fundamental points: innovations, changes in the market forms, changes in income distribution and the sustainability of debts. The duration of prosperity depends first of all on the importance and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925226
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The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies
Mehl, Arnaud - 2021
-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317370
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Merging structural and reduced-form models for forecasting : opening the DSGE-VAR box
Martínez-Martín, Jaime; Morris, Richard; Onorante, Luca; … - 2019
The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit …-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use for forecasting the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest … with (B)VAR methods does not give rise to any relevant gain in terms of forecasting accuracy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012132553
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Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment
Wang, Mu-Chun - 2008
represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …-horizon forecasting and structural models should be used in long-horizon forecasting. Our paper compareds both state-of-the art data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295876
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Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
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The Hungarian quarterly projection model (NEM)
Benk, Szilárd; Jakab, Zoltán M.; Kovács, Mihály András - 2006
This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322393