Showing 1 - 10 of 938
forecasting, as demonstrated by out-of-sample predictions for 2017. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897260
In this study, we analyzed the forecasting and nowcasting performance of a generalized regression neural network (GRNN …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496850
forecasting are dominated by inherently linear models that exhibit model dependence and have high data demands. We explore deep …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946449
In many macroeconomic forecasting applications factor models are used to cope with large datasets. This study aligns … variational autoencoders with macroeconomic factor modeling and proposes an extension to adapt this framework for forecasting … forecasting power. The results suggest significant improvements in the forecasting accuracy of four major US macroeconomic time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239712
I evaluate whether incorporating sub-national trends improves macroeconomic fore-casting accuracy in a deep machine … forecasting model outperforms equivalent methods based on country-level data and achieves a 0.14 percentage point average error … when forecasting out-of-sample monthly percentage changes in real GDP over a twelve-month horizon. The estimated model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256632
forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions … the algorithm in forecasting GDP growth 3- to 12-months ahead is assessed through simulations in pseudo-real-time for six …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012203223
. We conclude that the forecasting performance of neuro-fuzzy-system in the out-of-sample period is much more superior and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137170
This paper shows that newspaper articles contain timely economic signals that can materially improve nowcasts of real GDP growth for the euro area. Our text data is drawn from fifteen popular European newspapers, that collectively represent the four largest Euro area economies, and are machine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705416
-time forecasting results based on rolling window prediction methods indicate that multivariate adaptive linear vector autoregression …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014066021
We propose an ensemble learning methodology to forecast the future US GDP growth release. Our approach combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with a Dynamic Factor model accounting for time-variation in the mean with a Generalized Autoregressive Score (DFM-GAS). We show how this combination...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216959