"Economic activity depends on agents' real-time beliefs regarding the persistence in the shocks they currently perceive to be hitting the economy. This paper uses an unobserved components model of forecast revisions to examine how the professional forecasters comprising the Blue Chip Economic...

Increases in real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) averaged an annual rate of 3.2 percent between the fourth quarters of 1992 and 1995 (the solid line in panel A of figure 1), a relatively slow pace of growth considering that the economy was emerging from the 1990-91 recession. Output then...

Increases in real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) averaged an annual rate of 3.2 percent between the fourth quarters of 1992 and 1995 (the solid line in panel A of figure 1), a relatively slow pace of growth considering that the economy was emerging from the 1990-91 recession. Output then...