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This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may...
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This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed … pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise with US real-time data yields that the mixed frequency VAR substantially improves … frequency VAR framework using a stacked vector approach. Second, we integrate the mixed frequency VAR with a MIDAS type Almon …
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This paper gives an overview of the present version of the quarterly model for the Belgian economy built at the National Bank of Belgium (NBB). This model can provide quantitative input into the policy analysis and projection processes within a framework that has explicit micro-foundations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506590
This paper gives an overview of the present version of the quarterly model for the Belgian economy built at the National Bank of Belgium (NBB). This model can provide quantitative input into the policy analysis and projection processes within a framework that has explicit micro-foundations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011625595
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help predicting euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables provide additional predictive power. We use a VAR … adding financial variables yields smaller errors in fore-casting US economic activity, especially at a five- quarter horizon …. When forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (i.e. conditionally on the information available at the time when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605154