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Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
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Dynamic prediction pools : an investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
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Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle
Reif, Magnus - 2019
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
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Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058
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Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations : Maritta Paloviita; Matti Viren
Paloviita, Maritta; Virén, Matti E. E. - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 41 (2014) 1, pp. 69-81
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010437731
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A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP
Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol - 2018
This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises when the frequency of the variable to be nowcast, such as GDP, is quarterly, while that of the underlying panel data is monthly; and the latter contains both survey and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846875
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Medium-Term Forecasting of Euro-Area Macroeconomic Variables with DSGE and BVARX Models
Burlon, Lorenzo - 2015
forecasting inflation, while the BVARX model fares better in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024291
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Do Professional Forecasters Believe in the Phillips Curve?
Clements, Michael P. - 2023
The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014344341
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Do Professional Forecasters' Phillips Curves Incorporate the Beliefs of Others?
Clements, Michael; Wang, Shixuan - 2023
We apply functional data analysis to survey expectations data, and show that functional principal component analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257394
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Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment
Wang, Mu-Chun - 2008
represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …-horizon forecasting and structural models should be used in long-horizon forecasting. Our paper compareds both state-of-the art data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295876