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propose a mixed-frequency model to investigate the potential of using text data in form of newspaper articles for nowcasting … German GDP growth. Newspaper text data appears to be very helpful in this regard as it directly explains economic and social … on commonly used macro variables with and without additionally included information from text data (extracted in an …
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We analyze a corpus of 564 business cycle forecast reports for the German economy. The dataset covers nine institutions and 27 years. From the entire reports we select the parts that refer exclusively to the forecast of the German economy. Sentiment and frequency analysis confirm that the mode...
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We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, linear gradient boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...
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