We examine rationality, forecasting accuracy, and economic value of the survey-based exchange rate forecasts for 10 developed and 23 developing countries at the 3-, 12-, and 24-month horizons. Using the data from two surveys for the period from 2004 to 2012, we find strong evidence that the...

This paper evaluates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar using common forecast accuracy measures. Additionally, the...

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197..1125, 2005), we analyzed whether the loss function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro/dollar exchange rate, we found that the shape of the loss...