This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non-unitary expenditure elasticities of import demand implied by non-homothetic preferences in the previous year to be further combined with the current change in expenditure to...

Periodic demand forecasts are the primary planning and coordination mechanism within organizations. Because most demand forecasts incorporate human judgment, they are subject to both unintentional error and intentional opportunistic bias. We examine whether a disaggregation of the forecast into...

The dynamics of demand, moderately negative in comparison with the pessimistic forecasts, allowed the industry to avoid a reduction in output in January, to revise the production and sales plans for the better. However, according to regular polls by the Gaidar Institute, these factors also...