Financial modeling and forecasting is important for current and future sales for firms and the financial actors within the firm. It doesn't only tell you where you need to go but also reminds you of where you have been. It tells you the past, current, and future numbers. With these numbers a...

We quantify disagreement about the economy with ex-ante measures of divergence of opinion among economic forecasters and investigate if economic disagreement has a significant impact on the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks. We find a significant disagreement premium of 7.2% per...

Studying the determinants of management forecast precision is important because a better understanding of the factors affecting management’s choice of forecast precision can provide investors and other users with cues about the characteristics of the information contained in the forecasts. In...

This paper revisits the effects of news shocks in the context of an otherwise standard New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We use the U.S. real-time forecasts from the Federal Reserve's Green Book to model agents' and the central bank's expectations of future macroeconomic...

By utilizing survey forecasts of macroeconomic statistics, we find that market participants' expectations are not rational as they exhibit an anchoring bias. The forecasts systematically under-predict macroeconomic statistics and the forecast errors are predicted by past macroeconomic...

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...

In this paper we propose a new analysis of the association between the growth of the earnings per share (EPS) as reflected in analysts' forecasts, the book value of equity, the EPS and the market value of equity. Specifically, we motivate and introduce a new specification of the dynamics of the...