Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...

The German economy remains robust in a difficult international climate. In the current year, we expect GDP to increase by 2 per cent. That represents a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from our earlier forecast, mainly due to a slowdown in exports caused by sluggish growth in foreign markets...