We estimate models of consumption growth that allow for long-run risks and disasters using data for a series of countries over a time span of 200 years. Our estimates indicate that a model with small and frequent disasters that arrive at a mean-reverting rate best fits international consumption...

The effect of changes in demographic structure on medium-run trends of key macroeconomic variables is estimated using a Panel VAR of 21 OECD economies. The panel data variability assists the identification of direct effects of demographics, while the dynamic structure uncovers long-term effects....