Conventional R&D-based growth theory argues that productivity growth is driven by population growth but the data suggest that the erstwhile positive correlation between population and productivity turned negative during the 20th century. In order to resolve this problem we integrate R&D-based...

In this paper we develop a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort,...

We provide a quantitative theory of deflation and secular stagnation. In our lifecycle framework, an aging population puts persistent downward pressure on the price level, real interest rates, and output. A novel feature of our theory is that it also recognizes the reactions of government...

Den Deutschen steigt das vermeintliche "neue Wirtschaftswunder" zu Kopf, so Olaf Gersemann, Ressortleiter Wirtschaft und Finanzen bei der Tageszeitung "Die Welt". Wir überschätzen unsere Kraft bei weitem und übersehen dabei unsere Anfälligkeit für neue Krisen. Selbstgefällig verklären wir...