To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

The objective of this paper is to examine the recent literature on the standard open economy macro paradigm. Since there are many aspects to this literature, we concentrate on issues regarding the nature of restrictions imposed in order to gain identification, the general problem of...