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Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty in Individual Survey Expectations
Paloviita, Maritta - 2014
This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064553
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Understanding persistent stagnation
Cuba-Borda, Pablo; Singh, Sanjay R. - 2019 - This version: February 2019
We theoretically explore long-run stagnation at the zero lower bound in a representative agent framework. We analytically compare expectations-driven stagnation to a secular stagnation episode and find contrasting policy implications for changes in government spending, supply shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012004630
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Monetary transmission and the yield curve in a small open economy
Kulish, Mariano; Rees, Daniel I. - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003725440
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Extracting growth and inflation expectations from financial market data
Kajanoja, Lauri - In: Investigating the relationship between the financial …, (pp. 193-205). 2005
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003072610
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Extracting growth and inflation expectations from financial market data
Kajanoja, Lauri - 2004
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001899041
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Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - In: International journal of forecasting 33 (2017) 4, pp. 760-769
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011746905
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Extracting Growth and Inflation Expectations from Financial Market Data
Kajanoja, Lauri - 2004
This study presents a framework for extracting long-run GDP growth and inflation expectations from financial market … inflation expectations for the euro area and for the United States …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014073420
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Persistence in growth versus market expectations
Hall, Jason; Tochterman, Matthew - In: Australian journal of management 33 (2008/09) 1, pp. 169-199
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003740521
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An examination of the macro rational expectations hypothesis for the high growth period : the case of Japan and Korea
Lee, Sung-hwi - In: Seoul journal of economics 9 (1996) 4, pp. 321-342
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001229214
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Long-run growth uncertainty
Kuang, Pei; Mitra, Kaushik - 2016
Observed macroeconomic forecasts display gradual recognition of the long-run growth of endogenous variables (e.g. output, output per hour) and a positive correlation between long-run growth expectations and cyclical activities. Existing business cycle models appear inconsistent with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012010392