We use Bayesian time-varying parameters VARs with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in the marginal predictive content of the yield spread for output growth in the United States and the United Kingdom, since the Gold Standard era, and in the Eurozone, Canada, and Australia over the...

Over the past 5 years, real energy and non-energy commodity prices have trended sharply higher. These relative price movements have had important implications for inflation and economic activity in both Canada and the rest of the world. China has accounted for the bulk of incremental demand for...

The Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) for settling large payments, and CDSX for settling debt and equity trades, are two of the main settlement systems in Canada. They are closely linked; for example, at the end of the day the final CDSX payment obligations must settle on the Bank of Canada's...

The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This macro-founded measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures.

This paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors. We show that real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways, making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory. Interestingly, no such ambiguity is evidenced...

This paper provides an overview of poverty in North America. In it we look at the three countries of North America, Mexico, the US, and to a lesser extent Canada and attempt to both describe poverty as it exists in the three countries and explore some of the correlates of poverty. In doing so,...

Over the twentieth century, Canada's energy, forestry, and mining industries played a substantial and increasing role in the growth and development of the aggregate economy. Despite the improving fundamentals that were underlying their increased contributions to the size, capital intensity, and...