We show how to improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms by estimating the models on "lightly-revised" data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. Forecast accuracy is improved by reorganizing the data vintages employed in the...

This paper explores the relationship between export, import, and output for Thailand over the period from 1990 to 2017. The threshold vector autoregressive (VAR) and threshold vector error correction (VEC) models were applied. The empirical evidence confirms that the export-led growth hypothesis...