The BPCG model provides an interesting hypothesis regarding economic growth. The main implication is that world demand places a constraint on individual country performance. I discuss this implication and argue that tests of the BPCG model have essentially been tests of the hypothesis that trade...

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

One of the most striking features of the world economy is that wealthy countries are clustered together. This paper theoretically and empirically explains a mechanism for this clustering by extending the Acemoglu and Ventura model so that it takes real geography into account. Countries close to...

Commodity terms of trade (CTOT) volatility is positively associated with sovereign credit spreads, leading to a higher cost of capital for producers in commodity-dependent countries. In this paper, we examine how volatile CTOT influences industries’ growth performance based on sector-level...

The authors revisit Western Europe's record with labor-productivity convergence and tentatively extrapolate its implications for the future path of Eastern Europe. The poorer Western European countries caught up with the richer ones through both higher rates of physical capital accumulation and...

This paper analyzes the role of complexity in production on the level of output and on its rate of growth. We develop an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation, where increased complexity could exert either a positive or a negative effect on the level of output but always a...

Recent contributions to the growth literature have argued that the structure of an economy, as measured by its productive capabilities, is a key determinant for inter-country differences in development. Productive capabilities have been shown to be highly predictive of future economic growth,...

This paper analyzes the role of complexity in production on the level of output and on its rate of growth. We develop an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation, where increased complexity could exert either a positive or a negative effect on the level of output but always a...