This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The issue of whether the public sector enhances or retards long-run economic growth has been debated passionately in recent years. In this paper we use meta-analysis to shed light on the issue. A sample of 93 published studies, yielding 123 meta-observations, is used to examine the robustness of...

This paper tests the hypothesis that the links and leadership/dependency relationships between the People's Republic of China (PRC), the United States (US), and the other large Asian economies have changed over the past 20 years with the industrialization of the PRC economy. We use time-varying...

This paper tests the hypothesis that the links and leadership/dependency relationships between the People's Republic of China (PRC), the United States (US), and the other large Asian economies have changed over the past 20 years with the industrialization of the PRC economy. We use time-varying...

The issue of whether the public sector enhances or retards long-run economic growth has been debated passionately in recent years. In this paper we use meta-analysis to shed light on the issue. A sample of 93 published studies, yielding 123 meta-observations, is used to examine the robustness of...

This paper tests the hypothesis that the links and leadership/dependency relationships between the People's Republic of China (PRC), the United States (US), and the other large Asian economies have changed over the past 20 years with the industrialization of the PRC economy. We use time-varying...

While it is painfully clear that the 'ever closer' monetary and financial union in the EU has run into serious trouble there has been very little study of the degree to which the countries have become similar or different in their economic growth dynamics. This paper therefore goes beyond the...

Fiscal impulse measures are used in the WEO and elsewhere to indicate the changing impact of the budget on the economy. Such measures are intended to provide more accurate indications of whether the budget is becoming more or less expansionary than would just observing moments in the actual...

Modern calculation of textual sentiment involves a myriad of choices for the actual calibration. We introduce a general sentiment engineering framework that optimizes the design for forecasting purposes. It includes the use of the elastic net for sparse data-driven selection and weighting of...

This study applies wavelet coherency analysis to explore the relationship between the U.S. economic growth volatility, and income and wealth inequality measures over the period 1917 to 2015 and 1962 to 2014. We consider the relationship between output volatility during positive and negative...