Growth regression economics are haunted by the fact that results are easily overthrown by regressing alternative model specifications. Recent research therefore aims at obtaining robust regression results by systematically running multiple models and picking surviving variables. This note shows...

We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and 'data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data...

In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting...

Purpose - This paper introduces previously missing financial components(efficiency, activity and size) in the assessment of the finance-investment nexus. Design/methodology/approach - VAR models in the perspectives of VECM and short-run Granger causality are employed. Usage of optimally...

Growth regression economics are haunted by the fact that results are easily overthrown by regressing alternative model specifications. Recent research therefore aims at obtaining robust regression results by systematically running multiple models and picking surviving variables. This note shows...

We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates...

During the last decade, economists have shown that the inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate varies over time. Rolling regression has been the main tool used to quantify such a relationship. This methodology suffers from several well-known problems which lead to...

This paper carries out an explanatory investigation into the relationship between social and institutional contextual factors and economic growth in the Italian regions. We construct a three-sector semi-endogenous growth model with negative externalities depending on social and institutional...

‘Greening' economic growth discourses are increasingly replacing the catchword of ‘sustainable development' within national and international policy circles. The core of the argument is that the growth of modern economies may be sustained or even augmented, while policy intervention...