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We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013 …. We evaluate a "real-minus-implied risk premium", defined as the difference between real and option-implied returns, which … reveals a doubling of the risk-aversion of investors, from 8% in the pre-crisis to 16% in the post-crisis period. Granger …
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Observed macroeconomic forecasts display gradual recognition of the long-run growth of endogenous variables (e.g. output, output per hour) and a positive correlation between long-run growth expectations and cyclical activities. Existing business cycle models appear inconsistent with the...
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-sectional risk premium …
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