Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, weshow that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, withgrowth-at-risk (GaR)-defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile-more responsive thanthe median or upper percentiles....

The forecast of world economic growth plays a key role in the conduct of Canadian monetary policy. In this context, the authors study the usefulness of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in predicting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and...

Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)-defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile-more responsive than the median or upper...

What are the prospects for economic growth in the United States and other advanced countries over the next several decades? U.S. growth for the past 150 years has been surprisingly stable at 2% per year. Growth theory reveals that in the long run, growth in living standards is determined by...

Global growth will receive a boost from lower oil prices, which reflect to an important extent higher supply. But this boost is projected to be more than offset by negative factors, including investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations about medium-term growth continues in many...

The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is...

Die von den anderen EU-Regierungen verhängten Sanktionen hatten auf wirtschaftlichem Gebiet im Jahr 2000 so gut wie keine Auswirkungen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsproduktion dürfte um 3 1/4 % zugenommen haben, die Arbeitslosenquote im Jahresdurchschnitt auf ungefähr 3,3 % gesunken sein. 2001...