Prior research finds that investors have difficulty pricing corporate innovation. This paper investigates the role of long-term growth forecasting financial analysts in the efficiency of stock prices and consensus sell-side analyst forecasts, with respect to information about firms' innovative...

Previous research finds that EPS growth is difficult to predict and reasons that much of the observed variation in valuation multiples is due to mispricing (e.g., Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny, 1994; Chan, Karceski, and Lakonishok, 2003; Israel, Laursen, and Richardson, 2021). We revisit these...

This paper investigates the compensation and growth dynamics of private equity firms. Using proprietary data, I estimate that about half of their revenue is performance-related and find that current fund performance also has indirect effects on firms’ future revenue. The dynamics of these...

This study draws on the investor protection literature to examine differences in a country's information environment that are likely to explain cross country variation in the extent to which macroeconomic forecasters take account of current earnings when forecasting future growth in GDP. Using a...

This study provides finer-grained results on the financial effectiveness of ESG integration for mainstream active investment styles. We account for firm-size, industry and country effects within ESG scores and introduce the concept of ESG risk materiality. Empirical evidence shows, that U.S. and...

Multiannual periods of consecutive above-median or below-median growth rates in operating performance, called runs, have a substantial influence on firm valuations. For estimating the probability of an above-median or below-median run and utilizing information efficiently, we employ a stepwise...

We find that 30-minute changes in bond yields around scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements are predictable with the pre-FOMC Blue Chip professionals’ revisions in GDP growth forecasts. A positive pre-FOMC GDP growth revision predicts a contractionary policy news shock...

We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates...

Ex ante (expected) average equity market correlation is linked to the differential correlation dynamics of growth and value firms, as well as the value premium. It predicts returns on the value factor, returns of growth firms, and the changes in growth options within an economy for horizons up...