, the REER of the U.S. dollar is an important determinant of industrial commodity prices. For crude oil, growth forecast …

results suggest that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) is among the best-performing indicators to forecast real GDP growth … improves forecast accuracy and can be an effective way to mitigate the volatility associated with monthly indicators. Overall …

distribution of the forecast errors made by the institutes, and then fit a skewed t-distribution to the estimated quantiles. We use … the resulting density forecasts to compute the log probability score of the predicted forecast errors. Based on an …

quite rapidly with the forecast horizon, and (b) AugGVAR forecasts do as well as other data-rich forecasting techniques for … short horizons, and tend to do better for longer forecast horizons. …

for the world and for both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast …This study analyses the performance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook output forecasts … months old. In particular, there is an obvious gain using leading indicators from January to March for the forecast of the …