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This paper examines long memory volatility in international stock markets. We show that long memory volatility is … memory in volatility than emerging and frontier countries and that stock market jumps are negatively correlated with long … memory of volatility. Overall, our results provide some evidence of a link between stock market uncertainty and macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853413
In this paper, we challenge the traditional assumption of a linear relationship between exchange rate volatility and … volatility positively and significantly influences economic growth when growth in government spending is below 6 percent. Above … this 6 percent threshold, volatility exerts an insignificant effect on economic growth. In light of the adoption of a free …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011870188
Skewness in Expected Macro Fundamentals and the Predictability of Equity Returns: Evidence and Theory.The paper to which these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025168
We document that the first and third cross-sectional moments of the distribution of GDP growth rates made by professional forecasters can predict equity excess returns, a finding which is robust to controlling for a large set of well established predictive factors. We show that introducing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036192
-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and a Heckman-type two-step estimation procedure that deals with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011823990
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This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, andits associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision onpotential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of eitherdifference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325976