During the last decade, economists have shown that the inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate varies over time. Rolling regression has been the main tool used to quantify such a relationship. This methodology suffers from several well-known problems which lead to...

The aim of this paper is to capture the time-varying effects of the relationship between changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and economic growth. We use penalized regression splines to estimate the different point effects over time. Evidence from six European countries supports the...