partial least squares (PLS) regression to extract dynamic factors from the data set. Our forecasting analysis considers ten …

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after … manufacturing purchasing managers' index of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics help much for now- or forecasting. Our results …

probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …

sector or by the expenditure side) or whether a direct approach is more appropriate when it comes to forecasting GDP growth …