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framework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal relationships between inflation, growth and their respective … uncertainties using US data. We find that high inflation is detrimental to output growth both directly and indirectly via the … nominal uncertainty. Output growth boosts inflation but mainly indirectly through a reduction in real uncertainty. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008758143
framework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal relationships between inflation, growth and their respective … uncertainties using US data. We find that high inflation is detrimental to output growth both directly and indirectly via the … nominal uncertainty. Output growth boosts inflation but mainly indirectly through a reduction in real uncertainty. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013068979
This paper investigates how inflation and its uncertainty impact GDP growth in eight Central and Eastern European … Countries. Inflation uncertainty series are created examining several GARCH models in combination with three different … distribution functions, while the nonlinear effect of inflation and its uncertainty on GDP growth is assessed in the Bayesian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487908
Inflation and inflation uncertainty are critical factors influencing the functioning of markets and thus the efficient … flow of economic activities. In this study, we investigated the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on growth in … Ghana. Unlike the majority of the previous studies, we distinguished the short-run effects of inflation and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012176383
The study provides estimates of the threshold level of inflation for Russia based on panel threshold models. This paper …’s aim is to estimate the «optimal» level of inflation and to determine the number of thresholds for Russia within, unlike … ratio test to verify which model specification is optimal. The results indicate that the target inflation rate of 4% in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014095836
The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011312197
.S. output-inflation process, which implies that excess demand conditions are much more inflationary than excess supply … overheats because this will necessitate a severe tightening in monetary conditions in order to reestablish inflation control …. The small model of the U.S. output-inflation process developed in the paper shows that the seeds of large recessions, such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012781883
This study investigates the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output in Tunisia using real and … nominal data. GARCH-in-mean model with lagged variance equation is employed for the analysis. The result shows that inflation … uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation only in the real term. Moreover, inflation uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009683047
In this paper, we evaluate the causal relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty indices, inflation and growth rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945818
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913892