This chapter is structured in three parts. The first part outlines the methodological steps, involving both theoretical and empirical work, for assessing whether an observed allocation of resources across countries is efficient. The second part applies the methodology to the long-run allocation...

"The Great Recession" was preceded by a prolonged period of high growth accompanied by low and stable inflation, the so called "The Great Moderation". In Spain, a similar pattern was observed: in fact, potential growth estimates were trending upwards, implying that output gaps remained...

‘The Great Recession' was preceded by a prolonged period of high growth accompanied by low and stable inflation, the so-called ‘Great Moderation'. During that period, potential growth estimates were trending upwards and output gaps remained small. However, other imbalances were progressively...

Although emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) weathered the global recession a decade ago relatively well, they now appear less well placed to cope with the substantial downside risks facing the global economy. In many EMDEs, the room for monetary and fiscal policies to respond to...

‘The Great Recession' was preceded by a prolonged period of high growth accompanied by low and stable inflation, the so called ‘The Great Moderation'. In Spain, a similar pattern was observed: in fact, potential growth estimates were trending upwards, implying that output gaps remained...

The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09 confirmed the vital importance of advancing our understanding of macrofinancial linkages, the two-way interactions between the real economy and the financial sector. The crisis was a bitter reminder of how sharp fluctuations in asset prices, credit and...

New Zealand has for a long-time lived with a large and negative international investment position, mainly in the form of private debt intermediated through the banking system. These debts create economic risks. Fortunately New Zealand's good institutional and policy arrangements provide economic...

Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in...

Considering the deep and long-lasting impact of severe recessions, such as the 2008-09 financial crisis, it is important that measures be taken to minimise the risk of such event. But in doing so the benefits need to be balanced against the potential costs in terms of lower average growth that...

At a conceptual level, opening of capital markets entails a number of benefits and costs. One major cost of financial openness is output volatility. In this paper, using data from 21 advanced and 81 developing countries during 1971-2010, we empirically examine the impact of capital market...