compared with the forecasting accuracy of alternate econometric models including unrestricted and structural VARs. Key findings …

compared with the forecasting accuracy of alternate econometric models including unrestricted and structural VARs. Key findings …

perform a real-time forecasting exercise for the advance estimate of real GDP growth using dynamic regression models that … every model that includes the revision outperforms the baseline model. Measured by root mean squared forecasting error … (RMSFE), improvements are quite sizable, with many models increasing forecasting performance by 5% or more, and with top …

explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …

explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …

Countries. Inflation uncertainty series are created examining several GARCH models in combination with three different …

forecasting performance of the various model specifications. The extension of a basic growth model with a constant mean to models … expectations is important for forecasting growth in specific periods, such as the the recession periods around 2000s and around …

explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …

, outperforms existing approaches based on quantile regression and a GARCH model, especially at short horizons. In forecasting … the short term, but this link reverses at longer horizons. When forecasting downside risk, the proposed model, on average …