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Observed macroeconomic forecasts display gradual recognition of the long-run growth of endogenous variables (e.g. output, output per hour) and a positive correlation between long-run growth expectations and cyclical activities. Existing business cycle models appear inconsistent with the...
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Episodes of rapid credit growth, especially credit booms, tend to end abruptly, typically in the form of financial … crises. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive event study focusing on 99 credit booms. Loose monetary policy … stances seem to have contributed to the build-up of credit booms across both advanced and emerging economies. In particular …
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proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between price variables such as credit spreads and stock variables such as …
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