This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1994 to 2006 on key external and Latin American variables. It finds that 50 to 60 percent...

This paper presents a number of facts about growth in Latin America, and shows how critical correlates of growth have evolved over time. In comparison with other regions, Latin America has consistently exhibited higher macroeconomic volatility, lower openness, and higher income inequality,...

After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a...

What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors” including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment...

Cover -- Contents -- Preface -- Introduction -- I. 2010 Policy Conference, Washington, DC -- Ch 1. Postcrisis EU Governance -- Ch 2. From Convoy to Parting Ways?: Postcrisis Divergence Between European and US Macroeconomic Policies -- Economic Developments -- Monetary Policy -- Fiscal Policy --...

Severe recessions and financial crises are frequent. Their effect on the economy is persistent and often exceeds initial projections. They can also be a strong driver of widening inequality. Therefore it is important that measures be taken to minimise the risk of such events while strengthening...

Severe recessions and financial crises are frequent. Their effect on the economy is persistent and often exceeds initial projections. They can also be a strong driver of widening inequality. Therefore it is important that measures be taken to minimize the risk of such events while strengthening...

Despite the large output declines suffered by emerging Europe in 2008-09, a major currency and banking crisis was avoided. This paper argues that European economic and political integration was a mitigating factor in this. Cross-border banking groups, in particular, seem to have forestalled a...