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short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082
-term inflation target, and the incidence of recession and slow growth. The forecasting performance of the GVAR model in relation to …We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances …-of-sample forecasting performance is substantiated by a raft of statistical tests which indicate that the predictive accuracy of the GVAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108763
We incorporate quantile regressions into a structural vector autoregression model to empirically assess how monetary and fiscal policy influence risks around future GDP growth. Using a panel of six developed countries, we find that both policy instruments affect the location of the distribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012522864
This paper studies the comparative predictive accuracy of forecasting methods using mixed-frequency data, as applied to … nowcasting Philippine inflation, real GDP growth, and other related macroeconomic variables. It focuses on variations of mixed … indicate that just about every method in the pool of forecasting methods studied performs best in some cases and worst in other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014094788
forecasting of inflation in Nigeria for the period of 1961 { 2016. The study employed Granger causality test, Au- toregressive … inflation threshold of 14% -15% both in the short run and long run was established for Nigeria. As for the forecasting of …This study examined the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as estimating threshold and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922677
Es wird das Konzept für ein makroökonomisches Strukturmodell mit integriertem Innovationsprozesskern zur Analyse und Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vorgestellt. Das geplante Modell soll explizit die Auswirkungen des immer bedeutsamer werdenden IuK-technologischen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295370
, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two long run relations …: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy … significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326726
This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604911
, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two long run relations …: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy … significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276267
This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the Dutch disease and the resource curse, which primarily focuses on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282525