In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument … temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the … Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences …

This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook …

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its … GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive …