In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change. Contrary to previous analysis based on classical point estimates, this approach provides a straightforward measure of estimation uncertainty for the counterfactual quantity of interest. We apply the...

We use TVP models and real-time data to describe the evolution of the leading properties of the yield spread for output growth in five European economies and in the US over the last decades and until the third quarter of 2010. We evaluate the predictive performance of benchmark term-structure...

This paper revisits the argument on the contentious causality relationship between net FDI inflows and GDP among the pioneering Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-5) members using data from 1970 till 2013. Although two-way correlations exist between these two variables in these...

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications...

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and government debt for one of the biggest economies in the world, the economy of China. The data were fitted into a regression equation using econometric techniques such as unit root tests and Granger causality. Regarding unit...

Does trade openness cause higher GDP per capita? Since the seminal instrumental variables (IV) estimates of Frankel and Romer [F&R](1999) important doubts have surfaced. Is the correlation spurious and driven by omitted geographical and institutional variables? In this paper, we generalize F&R's...

We estimate the elasticity of the long-run relationship between energy consumption and GDP for 10 countries in Latin America from 1971 to 2007. We employ Pedroni's (1999, 2004) panel cointegration test to determine if such a long-run relationship exists. Westerlund's (2006) cointegration test...