This study constructs a Bayesian nonparametric model to investigate whether stock market returns predict real economic growth. Unlike earlier studies, our use of an infinite hidden Markov model enables parameters to be time-varying across an infinite number of Markov-switching states estimated...

This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...

In this paper, we propose a new approach to represent a country's outward orientation. Prior work mostly uses indicators of aggregate trade intensity, trade policy or trade restrictiveness. Our approach offers a broader perspective as it measures a country's level of integration not only by its...

Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model structure where all features change every period to a model where the slow variation in the conditional mean and changes in the conditional variance are specified together with...

In the context of an autoregressive panel data model with fixed effect, we examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and consistent model selection. Consistency in parameter estimation is achieved by using the tansformation of the fixed effect proposed by Lancaster (2002)....

We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that...

This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...

Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...

The link between systemic risk and economic growth is hard to study because the relationship is believed to be nonlinear and systemic risk is unobservable. The myriad of measures proposed in the literature add model uncertainty as an additional difficulty. I use a Bayesian quantile regression to...