Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...

DSGE models are a prominent tool for forecasting at central banks and the competitive forecasting performance of these models relative to alternatives-including official forecasts has been documented. When evaluating DSGE models on an absolute basis, however, we find that the benchmark estimated...

Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...

This book develops a machine-learning framework for predicting economic growth. It can also be considered as a primer for using machine learning (also known as data mining or data analytics) to answer economic questions. While machine learning itself is not a new idea, advances in computing...

Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...

This paper backtests a nowcast of Japan's real GDP growth. Its distinguishing features are use of genuine real-time data, a new revision analysis to track the nowcast's evolution, and a comparison with a market consensus forecast at 13 monthly forecasting horizons. The nowcast's forecasting...

We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances among a group of 33 countries (26 regions). We account for structural instability by use of country-specific intercept shifts, the timings of which are identified taking into...

This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on...

This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on...

Using data for the Ukrainian economy, we applied and adapted the growth-at-risk (GaR) framework to examine the association between financial conditions, credit and sectors' activity, and external conditions and the probability distribution of GDP growth in Ukraine. We applied CSA and PCA...