Showing 1 - 10 of 12
Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968664
This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undeter-mined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010438196
This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undeter-mined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040008
This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undetermined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031735
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011704721
This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undetermined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030534
We investigate empirically the inflation dynamics in New Zealand, a small open economy and a pioneer in inflation targeting, under various open-economy Phillips curve specifications. Our forecasting exercise suggests that open-economy Phillips curves under standard measures of global slack do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957136
We investigate empirically the inflation dynamics in New Zealand, a small open economy and a pioneer in inflation targeting, under various open-economy Phillips curve specifications. Our forecasting exercise suggests that open-economy Phillips curves under standard measures of global slack do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960529
The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve's review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. The Committee discussed issues related to the review at five consecutive meetings from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824115
Investment helps countries at all levels of economic development reap productivity gains from new technologies and improve living standards. Investing to support innovation and a skilled workforce is as crucial for China as it is for the U.S
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971246