Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in...

This book on the different aspects of international economic policy covers financial crises, reserve accumulation, capital flows and currency wars as well as issues relating to foreign direct investment and developments in China and India

This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal) on output growth during financial crises characterized by a sudden stopʺ in net capital inflows in developing and emerging market economies. We investigate 83 sudden stop crises in 77 countries over 1982-2003...

This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate...

This paper presents a stock-flow-consistent model in which growth is led by exports and government expenditure. It considers domestic and external debt dynamics and gross capital flows. Countries may choose to not fully use their external space to accumulate international reserves. The model is...

Does a shortage of safe assets sow the seeds of instability of financial system? This paper empirically explores the hypothesis of safe asset shortage-induced excess credit booms and financial instability. As an alternative step forward from the assumption of growth- or wealth-based demand for...