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volatility, especially in the past decade. Nevertheless, dollarised countries benefit from higher levels of investment and trade …
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This paper explores the extent to which commodity prices can predict GDP growth rates of various countries using indices of 27 commonly traded commodity futures. Commodity returns can strongly predict the next quarter's GDP growth, while the basis shows a reasonable level of predictive power....
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Since the early 2000s liquidity in option markets has become less resilient, and our evidence suggests that it is so because of an increased vulnerability to liquidity shocks in the underlying. To demonstrate the causal impact, we consider an incident in which a large broker dealer erroneously...
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We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the...
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that a rise in conditional consumption growth volatility relative to the rest of the world reduces the foreign exchange … relation between the volatility in consumption growth and the level of real interest rates relative to the world interest rate …We construct a measure of the short-term world interest rate using principal component analysis. Drawing on real …
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